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���������ZZ����������8�\R���6��^<<<<���:6<6<6<6<6<6<6$y8�+;B`6��w^���`6ZZ<<;u6*�#�#�#��Z8<�<:6�#�:6�#�#�&.h�>/<�����H��������!��.&6�6<�6�.�m;Y"0m; >/>/Dm;��0����#�����`6`6�#����6������������������������������������������������������������������������m;����������$ :
Christine Mc Coy
Full Time Professor
Universidad del Caribe
 HYPERLINK "mailto:cmccoy@ucaribe.edu.mx" cmccoy@ucaribe.edu.mx

Magdalena �vila
Full Time Professor
Universidad del Caribe
 HYPERLINK "mailto:mavila@ucaribe.edu.mx" mavila@ucaribe.edu.mx

Sergio Lagunas Puls
Full Time Professor
Universidad del Caribe
 HYPERLINK "mailto:slagunas@ucaribe.edu.mx" slagunas@ucaribe.edu.mx


Cancun�s stage according to Butler�s TALC Theory, contrasted with a photograph evaluation of the site  

Abstract
Cancun is a resort created in the Decade of the seventies and over the years it has positioned itself as one of the most successful destinations for Sun and beach in Mexico. Today it has a total of 30 thousand 691 rooms.
The initial goal of this article was to take advantage of one of the models used most frequently in the analysis of tourism development, the life cycle of tourist areas by Butler (1980) and verify at which stage was Cancun according to this model. The theory of Butler was contrasted, as a way of support, with five focus groups to whom a set of Photographs of Cancun were shown to build Cancun�s social meaning. Finally, the  content analysis of the images was analyzed with Kelly�s grid and validated  through Crombachs Alfa.
The speed at which Cancun has developed led it to reach what Richard Butler in his theory, Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC), calls the point of consolidation. According to the figures showed Cancun is about to enter the next level, the stagnation phase if nothing is done.
Cancun	       Tourism Area Life Cycle	Kelly�s Grid	Quintana Roo	Tourism development


1. Introduction
The seventies represent a period of strong changes in the economic structure of Mexico.  This was part due to the new efforts in tourism such as the creation of Cancun (Castillo Villanueva, 2009).
The mexican government suggested a tourism integral development plan destined to consolidate and increase in the short and middle run tourist expenditure in the country. The plan had four main axxes: promote the creation of new forms of labor, propel regional development, diversify  the country�s touristic centers and increase the current account currency income (Banxico, 1974) with these goals in mind the bases for the first integrally planned touristic city in the country were set.
Considering  Quintana Roo�s coastal beauty and the new drive and economic tendencies of the Carribean the most elegible option was elected: develop tourism, Since Isla Mujeres and Cozumel  had already made some progress and both Islands received in 1959 a total of 70 thousand visitors.
Once this decision was taken, the next step was to find a suitable area were to make the dream  come true. After an intense search, a piece of land in the northern part of the Quintana Roo�s Peninsula was found. The location was between Cape Nizuc and Cape Cancun and offered the advantage above the Islands that this land was close to inland  and only a 8 km from Puerto Juarez, a fisherman community already stablished at that time (Banxico, 1974).
Twelve thousand seven hundred square meters were assigned to the new turistic proyect, where 80% of the surface was occupied by the  Nichupte lagoon system (Fonatur, 1982).
Cancun was choosen as a touristic center because of its physical characteristics:  the  proximity to the archaeological heritage, the weather, beaches and location, that has given, even today, an international recognition to the state of Quintana Roo.
The master project of Cancun is subdivided in three deferential elements (Hotel zone, Downtown and Puerto Juarez). Concentrating only in the hotel zone, it is important to mention that these section was planned in three stages: the first one that contemplated the area between Bah�a de Mujeres and Punta Cancun, included the Bojorquez Lagoon; the second one covers from Punta Cancun to Punta Nizuc and the third one towards the south area and up until the limits of Fonatur�s property (Fonatur, 1982). Stages one and two are fully developed today.
In one of the first press releases Fonatur�s published one could read that �the hotels of Cancun would receive the most demanding tourists�, that was at that moment a compromise to create an exclusive and luxurious resort (Duran, 2011).
This plan contemplated that for the year 2000 the hotel zone would have a total of 22 thousand rooms (Fonatur, 1982). It is important to mention that the limit was stipulated in 30,990 rooms according to the Urban Municipal Development Program of Benito Juarez 2005 (Lagunas; Sonda, 2012)
Even though Cancun is a representative example of what Doxey called Euphoria - the initial phase of the developmental stages in which investors and tourists are welcome-the control mechanisms established to preserve it were not followed. For example, some hotels were built over the dune despite the recommendation made in 1977, which warned it may damage the east coast of the island of Cancun. 
Cancun was conceived as an exclusive and luxurious destination, like Monte Carlo, oriented to a high class economic sector. During the first years Cancun did received elite tourism, which paid high hotel rates. 
As the number of hotel increased, its exclusivity and positioning capacity was lost. As a consequence the tourists that started arriving after the nineties had a much lower purchasing power, the plan of being an exclusive resort drifted away.   
Even though over the last decades, Cancun has become the most important international tourism area in Mexico, the development process  of this site has been faster than what was expected at the beggining.  The pourpose of this article, is to carry out a re envisioning  of one of the most frequently used models to analyze tourism development, Butler�s (1980) Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC) and verify in what stage in time Cancun is acording to Butler�s TALC. The theory will be contrasted, as a mean of support, with five focus groups to whom some photographs will be shown  as  a way of  construction of Cancun�s social meaning, finally  the  content analysis of the images will be analyzed with Kelly�s grid and validated  through Crombachs Alfa .
2.- Brief Literature Review
2.1.- Life cycle of a tourism destination
Tourism destinations, as products, have a life time span, and are directly related with the law of entropy which states that energy in a system declines over time, and most authors agree that carrying capacity is similarly finite since the earth resources, with current technology, are limited and their excessive use will lead to decline in either the number of tourists or the quality of their experience (Singh, 2011), this is the fundation of  Butler�s TALC theory.
Since tourist areas are dynamic, they evolve and change over time. They also show gradual deterioriation and posible replacement of the physical plant and facilities if they want to maintain their initial popularity among touristers.
Christaller has a very clearly descrption of the idea of constant  evolution of a tourism area:
	The typical course of development has the following pattern. Painters search out untouched and unsual places to paint. Step by step the place develops as a so called artistic colony. Soon a cluster of poets follows, kindred to the painters: then cinema people, gourments and the jeunesse dor�e. The place becomes fashionable and the entrepreneur takes note. The fisherman�s cottage, the shelter-huts become converted into boarding houses and hotels come on the scene. Meanwhile the painters have fled and sought out another periphery �periphery as related to space, and metaphorically, as �forgoten� places and landscapes. Only the painters with a commercial inclination who like to do well  in business remain; they capitalize on a good name of this former painters corner and on the gullibility of tourists. More and more townsmen choose  this place, now on vogue and advertised in the newspapers. Subsequently the gourmets, and all those who seak real recreation, stay away. At last the tourist  agencies  come with their package rate  travelling parties; now the indulged public avoids such places. At the same time, in orther places, the same cycle occurs again; more and more places come into fashion, change their type, turn into everybody�s tourist haunt. (Butler, 2006).
Christaller�s description of how a tourist destination evolves will lead us to the theories of interest for this paper:  the first version of the TALC Model by Bultler and Brougham in 1972 entitled the applicability of the asymptotic curve to forecast tourism development; the psychographics of tourists of Plog (1973) describes how changes in the tourism market were related to subsecuent changes in the destinations visited. Plog�s article is one of the first at that time to even raise the topic of the decline of destinations (Butler, 2006) and Butler�s TALC model (1980).
Based on the concept of a product cycle, where sales of a product move slowly at first, then experience a rapid growth rate, stabilizes and subsecuently  declines in an asymptotic curve. This process will cause a reduction of visitors to an area due to the lack of access and facilities. As amenities  are provided,  the popularity and the number of visitors will increase until the carring capacity levels are reached. At this point a decline in the number of tourist will be observed.
Image 1

The tourism Area Life Cycle Model (Butler, 1980)


 INCLUDEPICTURE "http://cloudtourism.pbworks.com/f/1238326606/butler.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET 


Table 1
Tourism Life Cycle Stages

StageDescrptionExplorationSmall number of tourists, Plog�s allocentrics and Cohen explorers, making individual travel arrangements and following irregular visitation patterns. No specific facilities provided for visitors.InvolvementAs the number of visitors increase and assume some regularity, some local residents will begin to provide facilities primarily or even exclusively for visitors. Contact between visitors  and locals can be expected  to remain high and in fact  increase for those involved in catering for visitors. Some advertisement to attract tourists can be anticipated and a tourist season can be expected to emerge. Adjustments will be made in the social pattern  of at least those local residents involved in tourism.DevelopmentReflects of a well defined tourist market area, shaped in part by heavy advertising in tourism generating areas. As this stage progresses local involvement and control of development  will decline rapidly.  Some local provided facilities will have disappeared being superseded by larger,more elaborated and more up to date facilities provided by external organizations particularly for visitors accommodation. Changes in the physical appearance  of the area will be noticeable. As this stage unfolds  imported  labor  will  be utilized and auxiliary facilities for tourist industry  will make their appeareance. The type of tourist will also change as a wider market is drawn upon, representing the mid centrics of Plogs classification of Cohens institutionalized tourist.ConsolidationAs this stage enters  the rate of increase in number of visitors will decline, although total numbers will increase, and total visitors number exceed  the number of permanent residents. A mayor part of the economy areas will be tied to tourism. Marketing and advertising will be wide reaching and efforts will be made to extend the visitors season and market area.StagnationThe peak number of visitors will have been reached, capacity levels for many variables will have been striked or exceded causing environmental, social and economic problems. The area will have a well establish image  but no longer  be in fashion.  There will be a heavy reliance on repeted visitation and on conventions and similar forms of traffic.  Surplus bed capacity will be available and strenuous efforts will be needed to maintain the level of visitation. New development will be peripherial to the original tourist area and the existing properties are likely to experience frequent changes in ownership.
 DeclineThe area will not be able to compete with newer attractions and so will face a declining market both spatially and numerically. Property turn over will be high and tourist facilities often will be replaced by non tourist related structures  as the area moves out of tourism.RejuvenationComplete change  in the attractions on which tourism is based.  Two ways one is addition of man made  attractions or to take advantage of untapped natural resourses.Adapted from: Butler, R. (2006); the tourism area life cicle,  aplications and modifications, Englad, Cannel View Publications
2.2.- Images as a construction of social meaning
In today�s world images are part of our daily life. In history they have been a transcendent support to humans� memory. Youngsters can see today what people have to go thru during world war and the struggles it caused thanks to all those images war photographers� recollected  and  now they are part of great history books.  
Distances are shorter thanks to the power of an image that can be sent in seconds through Internet across the universe, and anybody can keep track of world or family events. Images show how the world and its people change.
Images talk, they show how people are, if they have money or if they are suffering, if they are healthy or sick, happy, mad or sad. By looking at the images, like photographs, in someone�s desk or office you can grasp a lot of information about the person you are with, his affections, his hobbies, what he likes, how is his family and lots more.
Photographs have been used by newspapers to make a story stronger, with more impact. Images can be so powerful that they can make you cry or smile, feel happy or sad, A good example is the �kissing sailor� taken in Times Square by Alfred Eisenstaedt, August 1945 the day Japan surrender or the �man on the moon�.
Photographs are not the only images, there are also maps and graphs, paintings and even graffiti in a wall can send a powerful social meaning. A map can show the facilities found in an area such as markets, shops, schools, churches, masque and many other things that will give general information on life style of the community
Today�s society, impregnated by the means of communication, is a society of images. Deciphering those implicit codes in them will help us have a better understanding of the world in which we live (de Alba Gonz�lez, 2010).
According to Barthes, images like photographs, drawings, paintings and even theater plays or movies contain two types of messages: the image within itself, as a structured object, that represents a reality. Its message is explicit because of what it shows; it is a fixed image where time has stopped. In the other hand there is an implicit message that has to be found in the production processes and the reception of the image (Barhes, 1982 in de Alba Gonz�lez, 2010).
Bohnsack (2008)  considers that photography and images in general do not only represent the world and  its reality  but that they help to build it up and understand it  (de Alba Gonz�lez, 2010). For Durand (1996) a photograph can be in it self a study object or  can be used as a tecnique for investigation that tries give details of the world we live in, where the image is a dominat construcction of the social imaginary  (de Alba Gonz�lez, 2010). 


3.- Research Design
As mention before the goal of this research is to verify in what stage of development is Cancun according to Butler�s (1980) Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC). As a mean of support the theory will be contrasted with five focus groups  to whom some photographs, will be shown  as  a way of building  Cancun�s social meaning, finally the content analysis of the images will be analyzed with Kelly�s grid and validated  through Crombachs Alfa.
To reach the set goal the methodology comprises two parts. The first part concerns with the Tourism Area Life Cycle model and the asymptotic curve; the second part the details of Kelly�s grid as a way of analysing personal constructs.
a) Research focus
The focus of this article is a descriptive study with exploratory research. The exploratory research studies acording to Hernandez (2010: 79) help us get familiarized with the unknown fenomenons and help us identify reaseach priorities for future studies.
3.1 Tourism Area Life Cycle Model
Data colection
The first part of the study is centered on the statistical data collection provided by official institutions  such as the Cancun Hotel Association, Fonatur and also during the literature review in order to gather the complete series of tourist visits since the studied destination was created. This to be able to analyse the data and know what the Tourist destination�s life cycle and asymptotic curve is, to be able to contrast the real statistical data with Butler�s described  life cycle stages.
3.2 Images as a way of building social meaning
Tourism Carrying Capacity as Lopez-Bonilla (2008) commented, is the maximum number of visitors an area could accommodate without there being excessive deterioration of the environment or declining visitor satisfaction. 
But in tourism destinations there is also what Hunter (cited in Pradeepkumur (2013)) calles perceptual carrying capacity, which is the lowest degree of enyoyment tourists are prepared to accept before they start seeking alternative destinations.
Since perception is an important part of the life cycle of destination as it is with images or photographs, since they not only represent the world and its social reality but they also help to build it  (de Alba Gonz�lez, 2010).
So as a way of supporting the acknowledgements found with the analysis of the data series of the Cancun�s TALC,  a group of photographs were taken along the 21 kilometers of Cancun�s hotel zone as a record of the state the Hotel Zone has today. 
And in this study these photographs were used as an instrument to collect people�s perception of the hotel zone to know how they perceive and interpret the landscape , for these the Kelly�s Grid Method was used.  This part of the study was divided into two phases:
 The first part of the study requiered a qualitative process, for this matter in depth sessions or focus groups were used. A focus groups consist of small group meetings (between 3 to 10 persons), where they talk about a specific theme, under the guidence of an specialist (Hern�ndez, 2010: 425).
In our case the focus groups were not based on talks of specific themes, what was done was showing the participants a set of photographs that they had to observed and upon them answear a grid priviously prepared where they had to choose among eleven bipolar categories.
The images choosen were part of a 1000 photographs bank that were taken in the hotel zone. From there only 33 were selected to build a presentation and be able to show the hotel zone�s current condition. Since the idea of the photographs was to show Canc�n�s Life Cycle from the economic, social and environmental point of view, in order to verify it�s Perceptual Carrying Cappacity  state, the presentation was divided into those three categories. 
To stablish a referencial frame of mind the presentation had guided questions that would help the viewers identify the section they were answering and obtain from the participants a wider range of opinions from the diferent perspectives. 
The presentation was shown to five groups divided among professors from different disciplines of Universidad del Caribe; university students of tourism, international business, ingenering and marketing from different semesters; architects and enginers from Cancun.
Based on Kelly�s Grid  an eleven category bipolar scale questionnaire was created and hand out to the participants  of the focus grups, so they could fill it in while they saw the picture presentation. After the focus grups to verify in what stage of development is Cancun according to Butler�s (1980) Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC). and validated  through Crombachs Alfa
4.- Results
4.1 The Tourism Area Life Cycle Model
4.1.1.- Cancun in figures
It is relevant to evaluate Cancun�s tourist evolution throughout time and study its asymptotic curve of the destination to know what stage the popular site is at, according to Butler�s definitions. Thus, it will be analyzed not only through the images but based on statistical data provided by the Cancun�s Hotel Association.
In this evaluation, there is something that must be pointed out, which is the fact that Cancun is an Integrally Planned Center (CIP, by its acronym in Spanish). It was planned and designed by the personnel of Banco de Mexico who made a study about the area in which a wide range of possibilities   could be allowed within certain preselected parameters.
Consequently, this situation gave rise to what Butler has coined as an �instant resort� (Butler R. W., 1980). That is, the exploration and involvement phases were of minimal significance since there was no tourist activity before Banco de Mexico set eyes on this land. That situation might have been different if the evaluation of the tourism activity was being done of the Island of Cozumel or Isla Mujeres, as these have had touristic activity since the 1950�s.  
Table 2
Tourists in Cancun

Source: Fonatur, AHC en  libro Turismo, poblaci�n y territorio en Quintana Roo de Pedro Moncada Jim�nez

Based on Butler�s definition of the tourism phases, Cancun started from the developmental stage, in the seventies, since it was a governmental planned destination. Thanks to the governmental support this growth continued over the decades of the eighties and nineties where the number of tourists arriving increased as depicted in table 2. 

Joined to this, table 3 shows the amount of rooms built grew in the eighties by 289 % which was obviously reflected in the number of tourist arriving to the area. Then, table no. 2 shows that the number of tourist increased from 460 000 in 1980 to 1, 153 600 hundred in 1989, which represents a 150% growth only in this decade.

In the nineties the amount of hotel building slowed down and the tourist growth rate decreased. Nevertheless, the number of tourists (table 2) still represented a big number of visitors, increasing from 1, 575 700 in 1990 to 2, 818 300 in 1999.  A total growth rate of 78% in the decade in which Cancun was still in the developmental stage.

According to Butler, in the development stage the tourist market area is well-defined and partially shaped by heavy advertising in tourist generating area (Butler, 2006). A good example of this was the North American Market for Cancun at that time.



Table 3
Room in Cancun

Source: Fonatur, AHC en  libro Turismo, poblaci�n y territorio en Quintana Roo de Pedro Moncada Jim�nez, Canc�n desarrollo tur�stico, Q. Roo Lorena Carega 

At the beginning of the 21st century the number of tourists started to slow down as it is shown in table 2, which following Butler�s theory means that the destination has entered in the consolidation phase.  In this period the visitors� rate of growth declined (from 78.86 % to 34%), although the total number of visitors was still increasing (from 3,044,800 to 4,096,898) and   exceeded the amount of permanent residents, that according to the National Census, Cancun had, in 2005, a population of 526,701.
Analyzing the data collected by the Cancun Hotel Association the maximum number of tourists reported in 2009 was a total of 4 million 96 thousands 898 tourists. However, the number of tourists arriving to Cancun has slowly declined since that year as can be seen in graph no. 1 and table 2, which might mean that the destination is starting the stagnation phase, according to Butle�s Life Cycle Theory, where the peak numbers of visitors might have been reached as well as the capacity levels for variables, such as employment, occupancy among others, which trigger environmental, social and economic problems.

Graph 1
Tourists in Cancun
 SHAPE  \* MERGEFORMAT 
Source: Own production with data from Fonatur, AHC en  libro Turismo, poblaci�n y territorio en Quintana Roo de Pedro Moncada Jim�nez
4.2.-  Kelly�s Grid Analysis

The grids were applied to sixty different persons. Each test has three stages the first one was the economic stage, where the guided question was if the Hotel Zones was still considered an economic machine.  
The studies focused on the economic area find a significant and internal consistency of the Crombachs alfa of .98, never the less the results may be biased by the multicollinearity of some variables used. 
Making an evaluation of the total number of responses this section had 6,990 answers divided in positive and negative constructs of how the Hotel Zone could economically be perceived; and the results that could be observed were that 60% of the answers do not longer perceive the area as an economic machine.  

Concentrating on the ecological perception people were asked if they perceived a balance among tourism and nature in the Hotel Zone.  A better significance and internal consistency could be observed, where the Crombach alfa is .88. And evaluating the 6993 total number of responses 53.8% did not observe an ecological balance.

At last, the social perception of the hotel zone, where people were asked if this area improves the quality of life of the population that live in Cancun, the significance and internal consistency shown by the Crombach alfa was .90. But in this case even if the economic and ecological views were negative, but the social perceptions tendency showed to be more positive where 54.26% of the interviews considered the hotel zone to improve their quality of life. 
 
Conclusion 
Cancun, is a resort that has distinguished itself for its popularity. It is recognize as the best sun and beach location in Mexico and has been the one that propelled the initial growth of Playa del Carmen, in the late nineties, and the Riviera Maya.
Tourist destinations are like products, and they are sensitive and influenced by its popularity among tourists that visit the place.
Retaking the initial goal of this article which was to verify what stage Cancun is in according to Butler�s tourism area life cycle theory, the Mexican Caribbean main destination flows among two stages, depending from what point of view it is taken.
According to the statistics, the resort is in the consolidation stage. These results from analyzing the data and observing that the increase rate in number of visitors has been declining although the total number of visitors has increased and the total visitors exceed the number of permanent residents. this coincides with Butler�s definition of this stage..
It is evident that a mayor part of the economy sections are tied to tourism therefore there are constant efforts to extend the visitors season, creating new products for specialized tourism like golf, medical, sports and adventure among others.
In the other hand, if the attention is put only on Butlers definitions of the stages he proposes, then Cancun is in the stagnation stage.  This is so because the peak number of visitors was reached in 2009 and from there on the numbers have slowly declined. 
The capacity levels for many variables have been stroked or exceeded with environmental, social and economic problems. Some examples in the ecological sector are the increased pollution in Nichupte�s Lagoon and the beach erosion, which has caused the government to spend almost a thousand million pesos to recover and up to day they are still visible signs of deterioration.
In the economic sphere there is a low economic spillover in the Hotel Zone, since 70% of the establishments are All Inclusive and most of the guests do not leave the premises to walk and shop around. As a result several restaurants and shops have closed down. 
These two aspects are confirmed with the Kelly�s grid exercise applied to the analysis of different Cancun photographs� were the objective was to measure the Perceptual Carrying Capacity of the Hotel Zone.  
The findings of the Perceptual Carrying Capacity study where coherent with Butler�s theory.  Since both, the economic and ecological area where negatively evaluated. That is, the Hotel Zone is no longer considered an economic machine and there is a weak balance between tourism and nature. 
This is something to meditate upon since Cancun�s main activity is based on the economic dynamic of the hotel zone, and tourists come because they want to enjoy the natural beauty of the Mexican Caribbean sites.
Next to the ecological and economic issues of the hotel zone there are some signs of delinquency, vandalism and drugs, never the less the population interviewed does perceive a positive side in the social section because for them the Hotel Zone is a place that improves theirs quality of life.
Continuing with butlers definition of the Stagnation stage, the tourism profile has changed and moreover there are new developments being build near the peripheral of the original Cancun Hotel Zone: as �Isla Blanca�, only 15 minutes to the north of the hotel zone, where there are plans of building 9,000 rooms and �La Milla de Oro�, only 15 minutes to the south, where authorities have not decided if they are going to authorized the construction of 5,000 or 10,000 rooms.
The main Mexican Caribbean destination is only 46 years old, but its growth was very fast in all the senses, no wonder Cancun is today considered a matured destination. With an average annual occupancy rate of 70% and in an urgent need of a new ordering plan which will help obtain the touristic sustainability that it once had.

References
Banco de M�xico. (1974). Archivo hist�rico de la cosntrucci�n de Canc�n. M�xico: Banco de M�xico.
Barhes, R. (1982). Lo obvio y lo obtuso. Barcelona: Paid�s.
Butler, R. (2006). The Tourism area life cicle. Aplications and modifications. England: Cannel View Publications.
Butler, R. R. (2006). The Origins of the Tourism Area Life Cicle. En R. R. Butler, The Tourism Area Life Cicle: Applications and Modifications Vol. 1. England: Cannel View Publications.
Butler, R. W. (1980). The Concept of a Tourist Area Cycle Evolution: Implications for Management of Resources. The Canadian Geographer, 5-12.
de Alba Gonz�lez, M. (2010). La imagen como m�todo en la construcci�n de significados sociales. Revista de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades, 41-65.
Dur�n, M. (2011). El impacto social del modelo de negocios de Canc�n para la explotaci�n del turismo en el estado de Quintana Roo. Canc�n: Universidad Anahuac.
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Oviedo, H., & Campo, A. (2005). Aproximaci�n al suo del coeficiente alfa de Crombach. Revista Colombiana de Psiquiatr�a, 572-580.
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