International Journal of Mental Health & PsychiatryISSN: 2471-4372

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IMF lending programs and changes in observed fertility in participating countries: Is there a relationship?


Athina Zervoyianni and Eleftherios Goulas

University of Patras, UK

: Int J Ment Health Psychiatry

Abstract


This paper examines the association between participation in IMF-lending programs and changes in fertility rates. We use data from 68 developing and transition countries that received non-concessionary IMF loans during 1991-2008. Our results support the hypothesis of a causal negative relationship between IMF-program participation and total observed fertility. Comparing age groups, the age group 30-44 appears to exhibit the highest drop in fertility due to countries’ participation in IMF-lending agreements. These results are obtained after accounting for self-selection into programs, resulting from the endogeneity of a country’s decision to resort to the IMF for funding, and after controlling for other standard socio-economic influences on childbearing decisions. Overall, our results imply that when countries are exposed to IMF programs in an attempt to resolve their economic problems, appropriate strategies need to be developed to protect adversely-affected households in order to mitigate the constraints that prevent them from fulfilling their expectations about childbearing. athina@upatras.gr

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