Big data analysis to seek climate change proof and its risk mitigation

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Ionut Purica

AOSR, Romania

: Expert Opin Environ Biol

Abstract

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The change of the climate is characterized by the increase in temperature and a larger standard deviation of the temperature distribution. Having the data of temperature for each of the 40 regions of Romania on a monthly basis in time, starting 1961, a twofold analysis was done: first, with the purpose to check the evolution of the average temperature and of the associated distributions standard deviation and second, to assess the risks stemming from the combined effects of temperature and precipitation in each region that result in flood and drought and snow and freeze risks. These associated risks combine into a total risk for which a potential insurance system is proposed also correlated with the volatility of the temperature on a decade period in each region. The results of this analysis show evidence of a climate change process and suggest the validity of a risk mitigation policy.

Biography

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Ionut PURICA is a senior researcher in the Romanian Academy’s Institute for Economic Forecasting, and Executive Director of the Advisory Center for Energy and Environment, Dr.Purica was also a counselor of the Minister of Economy and previously the Minister of the Environment and an expert for the Parliament of Romania He participated in the elaboration of the EU accession strategy for Romania and the energy (electricity and heat) strategy (for the Ministry of Economy and Trade) and did risk analysis and transaction structuring and project management with the World Bank, USEA, JBIC, MARSH, ITOCHU, MVV, etc. He was also President (State Secretary) of the Romanian Agency for Nuclear Energy and Radioactive Waste – ANDR). Previously he worked as a project officer for energy and infrastructure in the World Bank, in Romania and the Balkans (e.g. energy Assessment in Kosovo 1999), being trained in project guarantees, value at risk, procurement to complete his expertise in engineering acquired as director for international projects of the Romanian Power Company RENEL and senior engineer managing a joint Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd-IMGBucharest quality engineering group for the manufacture of nuclear reactor components for the CANDU units in Romania. He worked also as an international researcher for ENEA Rome – the Italian Commission for Energy New Technology and Environment – and as an associate researcher at ICTP Trieste. Prof.Purica has authored books in his field of expertise published by Imperial College Press, Academic Press, etc. and published articles in journals like Risk Analysis, IEEE Power Engineering Review, Foundations of Control Engineering, etc. He took his second PhD in economics, (the first one in Nuclear Energy Engineering) and, he is a corresponding member of the Academy of Romanian Scientists (AOSR) and also a Professor teaching a course in Risk management to masters of science in the Hyperion University. He is a member of the WEC study group for energy scenarios 2050 and 2060 and a member of the Advisory Group for Energy of the EU Commission.